Politics, markets & other animal spirits

I haven’t been on here in a while because I just don’t know what to say. I haven’t known what to say since the American election on Nov. 8.** As soon as the winner was officially declared people started asking me questions about what to do with their money. But the market response was unexpected, to say the least. (Great article here about experts and economic uncertainty.)

A few months ago when Brexit hit, stocks tumbled a bit and I went shopping. I was expecting the same to happen after Nov. 8, but instead, aside from an initial stumble by the overseas markets, they started climbing and stayed strong for days. (The Dow Jones set an all-time high on Nov. 9.)

It seems people are hoping that Trump will make good on all his economic promises, and that we’re at the start of a growth period. I’m also guessing that after such a long, drawn out affair, everyone was happy a decision was finally made and we could get on with it.

Yes, I’m guessing. As is everyone who tries to anticipate the markets, don’t let them fool ya. In a recent seminar, Larry Berman revealed that a 10-year analysis of his predictions showed he was right about 62% of the time. (Love his honesty.)

There’s more to come, with other elections imminent across Europe. It seems nationalism and protectionism are in fashion, again.  (Can I just say that Coco Chanel would be my hero if she hadn’t shacked up with a Nazi? Sigh.) Here in Canada there’s the old joke that every time the US sneezes we catch a cold, so we’re right to pay attention to our neighbour’s business.

It’s going to be an interesting four years.

** I don’t know what to say about money, I mean. I have a lot to say about the election, and here’s a fun clip from Saturday Night Live.

 

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In the news

Here’s a quick roundup of a few interesting things.

US Banks Finally Getting Sued for the Great Recession Crash

Remember back in 2008/2009 when the US banks lent people money to buy homes they couldn’t afford, then raised interest rates and foreclosed? Miami nearly went bankrupt — if people lose their homes they’re not paying property taxes. But no one went to jail because for years before the crisis the banks and other financial institutions changed the rules in their favour (deregulation). Now Miami is trying to sue the banks. This will be interesting. Read all about it in the Washington Post

Canadian Banks Overcharging Customers

Meanwhile here in Canada the big banks are turning themselves in, admitting they overcharge customers and paying them back. Here’s the key point in this article – it is just too hard for average people to figure out what’s going on with their money. Most of our financial information comes from people trying to sell us something, which makes unbiased decisions much more difficult. Read all about it on CBC

Hillary & Donald: It’s Almost Over

Finally, is anyone else out there waiting to see if election anxiety affects the markets? When people get nervous they start pulling their money out by selling off their stocks, which sends prices lower. That’s what I love about the whole financial and economic scene – it’s not about numbers, it’s about people, and whether they have hope or fear for the future. I won’t direct you to any article about the American election though; I think we’ve all had enough over the past 18 months.

Hitting the regulations wall

I hit the wall in Chapter 3: the Canadian Regulatory Environment. Twenty-eight pages of tedium, plus online exercises. I’m telling myself, you gotta get through this to get to the fun stuff in Chapter 4: Economic Principles. (Yes, by comparison, it is the fun stuff. At least we’ll get back to talking about money.)

Blog-May2016-Reg wall 005

Chapter 1: The Capital Market managed to make money seem like a force for good. Of course it can be, but it’s really just a thing. The people behind it are what matter.

Chapter 2: The Canadian Securities Industry was a little easier, despite multiple definitions of underwriting. (Anyone else think of underwire bras? No? Just me then.)

Ok, one more push to finish. I’m trying to convince myself this is sexy stuff. Arbitration sounds fancy. Examples of unethical practices should be juicy. Trying really hard not to think of Paul Giamatti in his Billions bondage gear. I may need to watch Richard Gere in Pretty Woman instead.

Highlights of what I’ve learned so far:

  • Capital is just money that’s available so you can do stuff with it, like invest.
    Having more capital (money) means people can invest, businesses can increase productivity and governments can get more stuff done. So capital is good.
  • Lots of foreign countries invest in Canada because we’re seen as safe and secure. (Peace, order and good government baby!)
  • There are seven different stock exchanges in Canada, not just the TSX.
  • The big six banks run >90% of the country’s banking assets but there are oodles more banks (yes, oodles. Hey you’re not the one being quizzed. Believe me, I’m saving you.).
  • There are entirely too many definitions of underwriting.