Politics, markets & other animal spirits

I haven’t been on here in a while because I just don’t know what to say. I haven’t known what to say since the American election on Nov. 8.** As soon as the winner was officially declared people started asking me questions about what to do with their money. But the market response was unexpected, to say the least. (Great article here about experts and economic uncertainty.)

A few months ago when Brexit hit, stocks tumbled a bit and I went shopping. I was expecting the same to happen after Nov. 8, but instead, aside from an initial stumble by the overseas markets, they started climbing and stayed strong for days. (The Dow Jones set an all-time high on Nov. 9.)

It seems people are hoping that Trump will make good on all his economic promises, and that we’re at the start of a growth period. I’m also guessing that after such a long, drawn out affair, everyone was happy a decision was finally made and we could get on with it.

Yes, I’m guessing. As is everyone who tries to anticipate the markets, don’t let them fool ya. In a recent seminar, Larry Berman revealed that a 10-year analysis of his predictions showed he was right about 62% of the time. (Love his honesty.)

There’s more to come, with other elections imminent across Europe. It seems nationalism and protectionism are in fashion, again.  (Can I just say that Coco Chanel would be my hero if she hadn’t shacked up with a Nazi? Sigh.) Here in Canada there’s the old joke that every time the US sneezes we catch a cold, so we’re right to pay attention to our neighbour’s business.

It’s going to be an interesting four years.

** I don’t know what to say about money, I mean. I have a lot to say about the election, and here’s a fun clip from Saturday Night Live.

 

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Faces behind the figures

There’s been a lot going on lately, both in the world at large and my own personal life (Bluesfest is on, when I participate in my favourite sport – concerting). As a result I’ve been neglecting this blog, and to be honest, my studying. With a full-time contract & contracts on the side, plus an active social life and a fitness routine (yes, I actually have one), it’s hard to find the time for something I’m doing just for me.

I’m up to Chapter 6 now, on bonds. Bonds, just bonds. The entire chapter is full of terminology and I finally realized why it’s so boring.

The people are missing.

Bluesfest 2014

(At Bluesfest 2014)

Sure, there are things that I can make interesting, like strip bonds and convertible bonds. Now don’t they sound sexy? Strip bonds are bonds that have been stripped of their regular interest payments and resold for just the face-value amount. So if you have a bond worth $100 that pays you 5% interest annually until it matures in five years, and you sell it to me, I can sell the bond but keep the interest payments. Convertible bonds are bonds that can be converted into shares. It’s a way companies can raise money, by first borrowing (via bonds) then selling (via shares).

But I have to work at it. I have to imaging someone on a pole stripping (not me) and someone in a convertible (hopefully me). Maybe that’s just how my mind works, but what makes life interesting is the people.

That’s why the events in the US (Orlando, Florida; Baton Rouge, Louisiana; St. Paul, Minnesota; Dallas, Texas) and the UK (Brexit) are so riveting – we’re relating to the people involved and how they’re affected.

So I’ll keep going, slowly but surely, and try to find a connection. Money and the economy affects every single person and they’re just too important to be this boring. (I have to find the characters in the text. Get it? Tee hee!)

I’ll start by imagining James Bond stripping after picking me up in a convertible.